Asia Shares, Euro Pressured By Turkish Crisis

Turkish Lira and Euro banknotes. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic

By Wayne Cole, International Business Times
SYDNEY

Asia share markets slipped and the euro hit one-year lows on Monday as a fresh fall in the Turkish lira fueled demand for safe havens, including the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc and yen.

Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.95 percent and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.3 percent as bourses across the region turned red.

EMini futures for the S&P 500 were off 0.15 percent, while Treasury yields dipped further.

Much of the early action was in currencies with the euro gapping lower as the Turkish lira took another slide to all-time lows around 7.2400 at one stage.

[post_ads]It was last at 6.8450, having found just a sliver of support when Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said the country had drafted an action plan to ease investor concerns and the banking watchdog said it limited swap transactions.

The currency tumbled more than 40 percent this year on worries over Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s increasing control over the economy and deteriorating relations with the United States.

“The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief global economist at Capital Economics.

“This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class, but the wider economic spillovers should be fairly modest, even for the euro zone,” he added.

Kenningham noted Turkey’s annual gross domestic product of around $900 billion was just 1 percent of the global economy and slightly smaller than the Netherlands.

The Turkish equity market was less than 2 percent of the size of the UK market, and only 20 percent was held by non-residents, he added.

“Nonetheless, Turkey’s troubles are a further headwind for the euro and are not good news for EM assets either.”

Indeed, the single currency sank to a one-year trough against the Swiss franc in early trade around 1.1300 francs, while hitting a 10-week low on the yen around 125.45.
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Against the U.S. dollar, the euro touched its lowest since July 2017 at $1.13715. It was last at $1.1392 and still a long way from last week’s top at $1.1628. The dollar eased against the safe haven yen to 110.65, but was a shade firmer against a basket of currencies at 96.388.

The Argentine peso and South African rand were also caught in the crossfire.

“Contagion risks center on Spanish, Italian and French banks exposed to Turkish foreign currency debt, as well as Argentina and South Africa,” warned analysts at ANZ.

“Turkey’s massive pile of corporate debt denominated in foreign currencies, but a rapidly sliding currency – and inflation that’s threatening to go exponential – is a toxic combination.”

In commodity markets, gold had found little in the way of safety flows and was last stuck at $1,211.80 an ounce .

Oil prices edged higher with Brent up 5 cents at $72.86 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 15 cents to $67.78.

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